Merced
High Risk
AI Risk Score
โ ๏ธ74/100
#69 of 393 ยท +4 vs avg
Workers Vulnerable
๐ฏ24,470
31.0% of workforce
Average Wage
๐ฐ$59K
$-621 vs national
Tech Employment
๐ป0.7%
National avg: 2.0%
Service Employment
๐ช26.4%
National avg: 31.3%
WARN Notices (2025)
๐0
Layoff filings
๐ก Merced has an AI risk score of 74/100 with 31.0% of workers in vulnerable roles โ led by Healthcare. Average wages of $59K are below the national metro average. See California overview โ
AI Risk Analysis
The Merced metropolitan area receives an AI displacement risk score of 74 out of 100, placing it at rank #69 among 393 US metros. This is 4 points above the national metro average of 70, reflecting moderately elevated risk. An estimated 24,470 workers โ 31.0% of the workforce โ hold positions in occupations highly susceptible to automation.
The primary driver of risk in Merced is the concentration of employment in Healthcare, an industry where routine tasks, data processing, and customer interactions are increasingly being handled by AI systems. Among the most at-risk occupations in the area are Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, Nursery, and Greenhouse, Cashiers, Fast Food and Counter Workers, and Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers โ roles where advances in natural language processing, computer vision, and robotic process automation are already reducing demand.
Average wages in the metro ($59K) are close to the national average, creating neither a strong pull toward nor away from automation investment. Workers in this metro should consider developing complementary AI skills, exploring transition paths to lower-risk occupations, and leveraging local workforce development resources.
Automation Vulnerability
24,470
workers at risk (31.0%)
Top At-Risk Occupations
* Estimated local employment based on metro's share of national workforce. Actual distribution may vary.
Industry Breakdown
Top at-risk industry: Healthcare
National avg: 2.0%
National avg: 31.3% โ Below average exposure
Comparison to National Average
Risk Score
+4
vs 70 national avg
Average Wage
$-621
vs $60K national avg
Vulnerable Workers
+1.5%
vs 29.5% national avg
Similar Metro Areas
Metros with similar employment size and risk profile
National Economic Context
Latest national labor market indicators from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data)
Unemployment Rate
4.4%
2026-02
Labor Participation
62%
2026-02
Weekly UI Claims
214,000,000
2026-02
Job Openings
6.9M
2026-01
Career Resources for Merced
California Workforce Agency
State employment services, unemployment benefits, and job training programs
CareerOneStop
Find local American Job Centers, training providers, and career counseling
Local Community Colleges
Affordable reskilling programs, certifications, and degree pathways
Google Career Certificates
Professional certificates in data analytics, IT, project management, and UX design
๐ Methodology
Metro area AI risk scores are calculated using a composite model that weighs multiple factors: occupational automation probability (based on Frey & Osborne methodology and updated GenAI exposure scores), industry concentration risk, local employment mix, wage levels, and historical WARN Act layoff notices.
Scores range from 0 (lowest risk) to 100 (highest risk) and represent relative vulnerability compared to other US metro areas. Individual occupation risk scores within the metro are estimated by applying the metro's employment share to national occupation-level data. Data sources include BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, Census Bureau population estimates, and state WARN Act filings.