Modesto

The Modesto metropolitan area receives an AI displacement risk score of 70 out of 100, placing it at rank #182 among 393 US metros. This is close to the national metro average of 70, placing the area in the middle of the risk spectrum. An estimated 61,900 workers — 31.8% of the workforce — hold positions in occupations highly susceptible to automation.

The primary driver of risk in Modesto is the concentration of employment in Food Service & Hospitality, an industry where routine tasks, data processing, and customer interactions are increasingly being handled by AI systems. Among the most at-risk occupations in the area are Fast Food and Counter Workers, Cashiers, Retail Salespersons, and Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, Nursery, and Greenhouse — roles where advances in natural language processing, computer vision, and robotic process automation are already reducing demand.

Higher-than-average wages ($66K vs $60K nationally) may provide workers more resources to invest in reskilling, but also create stronger economic incentives for employers to automate. Workers in this metro should consider developing complementary AI skills, exploring transition paths to lower-risk occupations, and leveraging local workforce development resources.