Flagstaff

๐Ÿ“ ArizonaยทPop. 140,106ยท65,850 employedยทRanked #241 of 393 metros
69

High Risk

AI Risk Score

โš ๏ธ

69/100

#241 of 393 ยท -1 vs avg

Workers Vulnerable

๐ŸŽฏ

19,870

30.2% of workforce

Average Wage

๐Ÿ’ฐ

$58K

$-2K vs national

Tech Employment

๐Ÿ’ป

0.9%

National avg: 2.0%

Service Employment

๐Ÿช

36.7%

National avg: 31.3%

WARN Notices (2025)

๐Ÿ“‹

0

Layoff filings

๐Ÿ’ก Flagstaff has an AI risk score of 69/100 with 30.2% of workers in vulnerable roles โ€” led by Food Service & Hospitality. Average wages of $58K are below the national metro average. See Arizona overview โ†’

AI Risk Analysis

The Flagstaff metropolitan area receives an AI displacement risk score of 69 out of 100, placing it at rank #241 among 393 US metros. This is close to the national metro average of 70, placing the area in the middle of the risk spectrum. An estimated 19,870 workers โ€” 30.2% of the workforce โ€” hold positions in occupations highly susceptible to automation.

The primary driver of risk in Flagstaff is the concentration of employment in Food Service & Hospitality, an industry where routine tasks, data processing, and customer interactions are increasingly being handled by AI systems. Among the most at-risk occupations in the area are Fast Food and Counter Workers, Cashiers, Waiters and Waitresses, and Retail Salespersons โ€” roles where advances in natural language processing, computer vision, and robotic process automation are already reducing demand. The metro's heavy service sector concentration (36.7% vs 31.3% nationally) amplifies vulnerability, as customer-facing and back-office roles are prime targets for AI automation.

Average wages in the metro ($58K) are close to the national average, creating neither a strong pull toward nor away from automation investment. Workers in this metro should consider developing complementary AI skills, exploring transition paths to lower-risk occupations, and leveraging local workforce development resources.

Automation Vulnerability

19,870

workers at risk (30.2%)

0%30.2%33%+

Top At-Risk Occupations

* Estimated local employment based on metro's share of national workforce. Actual distribution may vary.

Industry Breakdown

Top at-risk industry: Food Service & Hospitality

Tech Sector0.9%

National avg: 2.0%

Service Sector36.7%

National avg: 31.3% โš ๏ธ High concentration โ€” elevated AI risk

Comparison to National Average

Risk Score

-1

vs 70 national avg

Average Wage

$-2K

vs $60K national avg

Vulnerable Workers

+0.7%

vs 29.5% national avg

National Economic Context

Latest national labor market indicators from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data)

Unemployment Rate

4.4%

2026-02

Labor Participation

62%

2026-02

Weekly UI Claims

214,000,000

2026-02

Job Openings

6.9M

2026-01

๐Ÿ“Š Methodology

Metro area AI risk scores are calculated using a composite model that weighs multiple factors: occupational automation probability (based on Frey & Osborne methodology and updated GenAI exposure scores), industry concentration risk, local employment mix, wage levels, and historical WARN Act layoff notices.

Scores range from 0 (lowest risk) to 100 (highest risk) and represent relative vulnerability compared to other US metro areas. Individual occupation risk scores within the metro are estimated by applying the metro's employment share to national occupation-level data. Data sources include BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, Census Bureau population estimates, and state WARN Act filings.